Don’t forecast 10 years ahead

tarot-991041_640An article on Medium written at the end of 2015 tries to predict how we will be living in 2025. The problem with predicting so far out, and ten years is far out, is that we cannot possibly know how things we haven’t even thought about will dramatically impact our lives.  It got me thinking what someone in January 2006 would have missed when predicting how we would be living in 2016. Continue reading


Gartner’s End User Predictions from 2010

This is what Gartner predicted for end users in 2010. What do you think now?

  1. By 2012, 20% of businesses will own no IT assets.
  2. By 2012, India-centric IT service companies will represent 20% of the leading cloud aggregators in the market.
  3. By 2012, Facebook will become the hub for social networks integration and Web socialization.
  4. By 2014, most IT business cases will include carbon remediation costs.
  5. In 2012, 60% of a new PC’s total life greenhouse gas emissions will have occurred before the user first turns the machine on.
  6. Internet marketing will be regulated by 2015, controlling more than $250 billion in Internet marketing spending worldwide.
  7. By 2014, more than three billion of the world’s adult population will be able to transact electronically via mobile and Internet technology.
  8. By 2015, context will be as influential to mobile consumer services and relationships as search engines are to the Web.
  9. By 2013, mobile phones will overtake PCs as the most common Web accessdevice worldwide.

2010 ERP predictions reviewed

Following from my previous post of Panorama’s 2011 ERP predictions, I was pointed to their 2010 predictions, which were:

  1. Diligent focus on ERP software benefits realization and ROI.
  2. SMBs to get back into the ERP software market.
  3. Increased adoption of Software as a Service (SaaS) at SMBs.
  4. Lots of ERP SaaS talk, but not as much action at large organizations.
  5. Increasing focus on organizational change management and ERP benefits realization.
  6. With ERP software, it’s still a buyers’ market.
  7. Enterprise software risk management.
  8. ERP software vendor consolidation.
  9. Focus on integration rather than major ERP package enhancements.
  10. Niches, low-hanging fruit, and business value.

Which one’s would you vote as being the most accurate?

Your 2011 ERP predictions

Eric Kimberling of Panorama published their top 10 ERP predictions for 2011.

  1. Risk management and mitigation.
  2. Increasing focus on organizational change management.
  3. Increasing need for ERP business cases, ROI analysis, and benefits realization. 
  4. ERP lawsuits and canceled ERP projects.
  5. ERP vendors will get their “mojo” back. 
  6. ERP vendor consolidation.
  7. Heavy adoption of Software as a Service (SaaS) models at small and mid-size businesses (SMBs).
  8. Continued buzz around cloud computing. 
  9. A good year for CRM software.
  10. More focus on diagnostics, analytics, and business intelligence.

But predictions can be subjective, so I would be interested to know how you would rank them.