Mobile phone O/S market share

For those people who think the mobile phone world is primarily iPhones and Blackberries, there is an article about mobile phone operating system (O/S) market share, based on web usage, which had this graph.

As I have said before, patterns and trends from North America do not necessarily translate elsewhere, and US patterns are not necessarily a useful predictor of worldwide directions.

The big future markets of Africa, Asia and South America are very much dominated by Nokia’s Symbian O/S. Does this mean we could end up with a divided market – developed countries on Apple and RIM, developing world on Nokia? And if you are a mobile applications developer, which mobile O/S do you focus your development efforts on?

New platform for the new decade

I read with much interest Don Dodge’s predictions for 2010 and the new decade. I find predictions a bit of a waste of time – when you look are what people predicted for 2009, about half came true, which is what a random selection would give. However I was struck about the prediction on future computing and mobile computing.

“Your cell phone will become your primary computer, communicator, camera, and entertainment device, all in one … I think in the near future there will be docking stations everywhere with a screen and a keyboard. You simply pull out your phone, plug it into the docking station, and instantly all your applications and data are available to you … Your phone will have enough storage so you can decide which applications and data are stored on your phone, and which will be in the cloud.”

When I look at what I can already store on my cellphone, this prediction seems quite plausible. But if people store applications on their phone, which they will presumably choose themselves, and if they decide to use the cloud to select their preferred applications, how will this impact the role and responsibilities of the company IT function? Their role of deciding what applications are suitable for the organisation becomes irrelevant, but they still have to ensure application and data security and integrity.

 ”Mobile phones are clearly the next computing platform … Mary Meeker of Morgan Stanley says Mobile Internet usage is bigger than most people think, and it is exploding.”

Application developers will have to re-consider the presentation layer for a different user interface and experience, and will have to assume that the mobile interface will be the preferred or default one, rather than as a side issue.

Where I do have a problem is the predictions about cloud computing and mobile bandwidth:

The explosion of reliable broadband bandwidth, virtualization technology, cheap storage, memory, and servers, has made Cloud Computing the obvious choice for the next decade … Why buy servers, hire IT admin to manage them, buy operating system licenses, application licenses, pay 20% maintenance fees every year, worry about security updates/breaches, hassle with asset management, etc., when you can just “pay as you go” with cloud computing resources? …
The new 700Mhz wireless spectrum became available in 2009, and will be built out over the next decade … Cell phones will see the same explosion in bandwidth in the coming decade, which will enable new applications and uses.”

This is a simplified view of the world. Firstly, business applications for even small and medium businesses are getting more complex. I’m not talking about simple accounting or CRM solutions, but the complex applications to manage orders, receive and dispatch inventory, schedule and manage manufacturing operations. It isn’t as simple as paying and starting, as the “pay as you go” mantra likes to make out. It may well be that business hands over the management of the application infrastructure to a cloud provider, but every successful business has a particular way of working that is different to others, and that is unlikely to be assisted by a standard enterprise application.

Secondly, the comment about mobile bandwidth is US-centric. Developing countries like South Africa are constrained in all sorts of bandwidth (Internet, radio, cellphones) because they have been already allocated to developed countries years ago. That is not to say that cellphone bandwidith will not significantly increase. What Don fails to note is that the growth of the mobile Internet will probably come more from developing regions like Africa than the US, as reported by Opera and Google.

However you look at it, the next decade is probably going to redefine the way we use, consume and interact with computing resources.

Internet goes mobile

I was recently listening to Johannesburg’s Classic FM to a interview with Stafford Maisie, country manager of Google in SA. Part of the discussion was on the growth of Internet access via cellphones. Because of our appalling fixed-line telco history, South Africa has become one of the innovators in cellphone deployment and use.

The population of SA is 40+ million, only 5 million have fixed-line Internet access, but almost everyone in the country has a cellphone. Research by Google found that 1 in 6 of all google searches in SA are from cellphones. SA is also one of the early adopters of Google mobile search.

In many developing countries, the situation must be similar. The problem for me is that most of the business applications have come from the developed world where PCs and a fixed-line Internet cloud are taken as the standard for Internet access.

At last however, the BBC reports that some companies are beginning to recognise the potential of the mobile Internet.

South African Internet and mobile status

An interesting blog from the New Media Marketing conference gives a status update on where SA stands in relation to its Internet and mobile adoption.

For fixed line we are still behind the times (thanks to Telkom) but seem to doing OK on the mobile side.

Mobile apps adoption

Adopting some of the new social network apps – Twitter, Facebook, Google Reader – has exposed me to the mobile solutions that those apps provide (for use on my cell phone). I am now quite used to spending some time viewing my RSS feeds on Google Reader mobile, updating Twitter on Twitter mobile, and checking things out on Facebook mobile - while I am waiting, usually in the car for a family member.

The way these mobile versions have been skillfully adapted, made user-friendly, and provide information in a concise manner, makes me wonder whether the next wave of ERP apps should focus rather on mobile solutions rather than Software as a Service (SaaS). The young generation, like my kids, are very familiar with using a cellphone as an Internet platform and for social networking (in SA they use Mxit), and it is getting common to see business people checking emails on their phones.

SaaS and Web 2.0 may be a sexy new wave for the IT people in the developed countries, but in developing countries the lack of good telcoms infrastructure makes it a luxury. However, many developing countries have good mobile communications, so applications that could be used on a cell phone might have a lot more traction.

So why have ERP vendors not started adapting their user interfaces for mobile use? There are obviously some ERP functions for which a small screen on a phone won’t work, but activities like approving a purchase order or leave/vacation application, or completing a timesheet, could be provided as a mobile application, and I am sure there are many others.

The technology is obviously available, as my mobile usage can attest, but it is the foresight, and creative insight and ability to re-design information layouts on a cellphone screen that seem to be lacking at the moment in enterprise vendors. An example of this creativity is the Opera Mini browser on my phone which allows me to view normal websites (I see they are adding more functionality as well).